“Construction is the art of making a meaningful whole out of many parts. Buildings are witnesses to the human ability to construct concrete things."
Zumthor likely meant the “ability to construct concrete things” as the translation of representations - complicated drawings and specifications - into physical real estate. That has never been easy. New research about what stimulates (or suppresses) supply growth at an MSA level now offers a clearer way to estimate future inventory with greater accuracy, an insight that has long eluded real estate investors.1
Let’s start with some facts. Nearly half of all projects in a planning phase - defined as any time before construction starts - are abandoned. For those that survive, the road through planning is long: Ground-up projects that move through pre-development, including design and approvals, take an average of 18 months from conception to construction-start, weighted by project cost. Once construction begins, however, the outcome is nearly certain, more than 99% of projects are completed.
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